A new report from Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce forecasts a significant shift in the job market over the next decade.
By 2031, most good jobs will require at least a four-year degree, the report suggests.
Researchers project that the number of good jobs for workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher will rise by over 15 million between 2021 and 2031. The study defines good jobs as those offering a minimum annual salary of $43,000 and a median salary of $74,000 (adjusted to 2022 dollars) for workers aged 25 to 44. In contrast, the number of good jobs available to workers with only a high school diploma or less is expected to decrease by nearly 600,000 during the same period.
What type of education leads to good jobs?
The report outlines three distinct educational pathways leading to good jobs: high school diploma or less, some college or associate degrees, and bachelor’s degrees or higher. By 2031, an estimated 62 percent of all positions will qualify as good jobs, marking a 3 percent increase from 2021.
Artem Gulish, senior federal policy advisor at Georgetown CEW and co-author of the report, emphasises the growing importance of higher education. “Bachelor’s and graduate degrees will remain dominant and even grow into the future,” Gulish noted. The report predicts that two-thirds of all good jobs in 2031 will require at least a four-year degree, up from 59 percent in 2021.
Furthermore, the analysis suggests that approximately 80 percent of jobs requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher will meet the criteria for good jobs. In contrast, only half of the jobs for those with some college education or an associate degree and just over a third for those with a high school diploma or less will qualify as good jobs.
The report comes at a time when public confidence in higher education is waning, with one-third of U.S. adults expressing little to no confidence in the sector. To address this, the report urges educational institutions to consider reducing costs, particularly for four-year degrees, to make higher education more accessible.
Skills-based training
In addition to academic qualifications, the report highlights the growing trend of skills-based hiring. As the labour market tightens, employers are increasingly prioritising candidates’ skills over formal certifications, even removing four-year degree requirements for some roles. By 2031, about 19 percent of good jobs, or 16.4 million positions, will be accessible through the middle-skills pathway, which includes vocational training and associate degrees.
The healthcare sector, in particular, is expected to see robust growth, driven by an aging population. Other fields with strong demand for middle-skills workers include construction, maintenance, and protective services.
The report also addresses the potential impact of technological advancements like artificial intelligence on the labour market. While these technologies may disrupt certain job sectors, the long-term outlook is positive. Gulish stated, “History shows that these kinds of new technologies generally tend to create more jobs than they destroy. Business will need help implementing things like AI in the long run.”
This analysis offers valuable insights for educational institutions and policymakers as they prepare for the evolving job market.
Amelia Brand is the Editor for HRreview, and host of the HR in Review podcast series. With a Master’s degree in Legal and Political Theory, her particular interests within HR include employment law, DE&I, and wellbeing within the workplace. Prior to working with HRreview, Amelia was Sub-Editor of a magazine, and Editor of the Environmental Justice Project at University College London, writing and overseeing articles into UCL’s weekly newsletter. Her previous academic work has focused on philosophy, politics and law, with a special focus on how artificial intelligence will feature in the future.
