Warnings of an artificial intelligence-driven jobs crisis may be running ahead of the evidence, according to one of the government’s most senior economic advisers, who has challenged predictions of widespread unemployment caused by the technology.
Baroness Minouche Shafik, a member of the Prime Minister’s Council of Economic Advisers, said concerns about mass job losses were being amplified by some technology executives and investors despite limited evidence of significant disruption in labour market data.
Her comments come amid growing debate about the impact of AI on employment, with some technology leaders predicting large-scale displacement of workers while employers continue to grapple with how best to integrate AI into their organisations.
Productivity gains ‘yet to emerge’
Speaking at an event hosted by international affairs think tank Chatham House, Shafik said fears of widespread unemployment caused by AI were disproportionate to the evidence currently available.
“I do think that there’s a certain degree of alarmism, which is probably disproportionate.”
She suggested some of the loudest warnings were coming from people with a commercial interest in promoting the technology.
“There’s a little bit of that going on in the AI world, people are talking their book and making it sound like you can run a company without any employees in the future, and you can provide government services without any civil servants … I think one has to discount them talking their book a little.”
Shafik also argued that the productivity benefits often promised by AI have yet to appear on a large scale.
“At the moment, we’re not seeing big productivity gains as a result of AI.”
She added that the technology’s impact was not yet visible in labour market statistics and suggested only a relatively small proportion of jobs could be fully automated.
Contrasting views from AI leaders
The comments place Shafik at odds with some of the most prominent figures in the AI industry.
Earlier this year, Sam Altman, chief executive of artificial intelligence company OpenAI, warned that entire categories of jobs could disappear as AI capabilities improve. Although Altman has recently acknowledged that the technology has not eliminated as many roles as he once expected, he continues to predict significant workplace change.
Meanwhile, Dario Amodei, chief executive of AI company Anthropic, has suggested that up to half of entry-level white-collar jobs could disappear within five years as businesses adopt increasingly capable AI systems.
Those warnings have fuelled concerns among workers about long-term job security and prompted renewed discussion about the future of work, reskilling and workforce planning.
Yet labour market data has so far painted a more mixed picture. While some employers are reducing headcount and restructuring roles, overall employment levels remain relatively strong and many organisations continue to report skills shortages in key occupations.
Focus moves to adaptation
Rather than predicting a future without work, Shafik argued that employment would continue to play an important role in society even as technology evolves. She also dismissed suggestions that a universal basic income (UBI) could become necessary because of widespread AI-related job losses.
“I’m deeply sceptical about proposals to have [UBI] because there won’t be any work left, and we’re all going to stay at home and get a check from the tech bros to spend more time on our screens.
“Work has value in terms of giving people a sense of purpose and contributing to society.”
For employers, the debate is increasingly moving beyond questions of whether AI will eliminate jobs towards how organisations can help employees adapt to changing skills requirements.
Many businesses are investing in AI training, reskilling programmes and workforce planning initiatives as they seek to capture productivity benefits while maintaining employee confidence. Experts say the challenge for HR leaders is likely to be balancing technological change with workforce development, particularly as expectations about AI’s impact continue to evolve.
William Furney is a Managing Editor at Black and White Trading Ltd based in Kingston upon Hull, UK. He is a prolific author and contributor at Workplace Wellbeing Professional, with over 127 published posts covering HR, employee engagement, and workplace wellbeing topics. His writing focuses on contemporary employment issues including pension schemes, employee health, financial struggles affecting workers, and broader workplace trends.
- William Furney
- William Furney
- William Furney
- William Furney
