Millions of workers could benefit from stronger rights under the Employment Rights Bill, but experts have warned that the impact will depend on whether the government holds firm on the details of key reforms.
New research by the Work Foundation at Lancaster University modelled how the introduction of day one unfair dismissal rights and new protections for zero-hour contract staff would have changed the labour market in 2023. The findings suggest the measures could transform job security for some of the most vulnerable groups of workers, yet they also show how even small changes to probationary periods could dilute the reforms.
The study used the UK Insecure Work Index to assess the Bill’s potential effects. Researchers found that if the reforms had been in place in 2023, 1.2 million fewer people would have been in severely insecure work. The number of workers in secure jobs would have risen by 3.9 million, taking the total to 17.8 million.
Probation periods crucial to reform
A statutory probation period will be introduced as part of the new unfair dismissal rights. The Work Foundation estimates that with a six-month probation period, the number of workers in severely insecure work would have fallen from 6.8 million to 5.6 million.
If the period were extended to 12 months, however, 6.1 million workers would have remained in severely insecure jobs, meaning hundreds of thousands would not have seen any improvement in security. It would also have meant 1.6 million fewer workers benefiting from the most secure category of work than under a six-month framework.
Ben Harrison, director of the Work Foundation, described strengthening workers’ rights as “a critical step towards delivering better living standards” and warned that ministers “must not trade away the benefits of the Bill”.
“Excessive delays in being able to access new rights risks significantly reducing the number of workers who will benefit from them at any given time. What might be characterised as ‘small details’ are in reality big choices for ministers, with significant implications for working people.”
Zero-hour contracts in focus
The analysis also examined the impact of new guaranteed hours for zero-hour contract workers. Researchers found that 92.5 percent of people on such contracts in 2023 would have benefited from the change, equal to around one million workers. Only 7.5 percent would have missed out, as they had been with their employer for less than the three-month qualifying period.
While the measure would reduce insecurity in relation to hours, the report notes that it would not resolve other challenges faced by zero-hour staff, including low pay and underemployment.
Overall, the study concluded that the reforms would have made a marked difference to job quality in 2023. The proportion of workers in secure jobs would have risen from 44.1 percent to 56.7 percent. The share in moderately insecure roles would have fallen from 34.6 percent to 25.6 percent, while severely insecure work would have dropped from 21.4 percent to 17.7 percent.
Unequal impact across groups
The Work Foundation found that those facing disadvantage in the labour market would gain the most from the reforms. For workers aged 16 to 24, the proportion in severely insecure jobs would have fallen by 8.3 percentage points. Black and Asian workers would also have seen reductions of 4.6 and 4.5 percentage points respectively. Women and disabled workers could have experienced falls of 4.8 and 4.7 percentage points.
“The Employment Rights Bill has the potential to be transformative for some of the most vulnerable workers in our society, but only if ministers hold firm during the drafting of secondary legislation and new codes of practice over the next two years,” said Harrison.
“This could be crucial to wider government ambitions to support more people into sustained employment. Job insecurity can exacerbate underlying health conditions and lead to people bouncing in and out of employment, or leaving the labour market altogether, which is bad for workers, businesses and the economy.”
Unions and campaigners call for full delivery
The Trades Union Congress has insisted that the reforms must be delivered in full. General Secretary Paul Nowak said the Bill could be a “game-changer for millions stuck in vulnerable and insecure employment. It’s vital that it is delivered in full.
“Giving workers proper rights from day one and clamping down on exploitative practices like zero-hours contracts will bring Britain closer to the standards working people already enjoy in other countries.”
Nowak added that “[t]hese common-sense reforms are incredibly popular with the public and will give people the security and respect they deserve at work. They will also stop decent employers from being undercut by the bad. Let’s get this over the line and make work fairer for everyone”.
Claire Reindorp, chief executive of campaign group the Young Women’s Trust, said the reforms could be life-changing.
“Young women are disproportionately likely to be in insecure work,” she said. “The reforms in the Employment Rights Bill have huge potential to transform their lives – job security means knowing how much money you have for food that month, not losing out on childcare costs when your shifts are cancelled last minute, and not being afraid your working hours will be cut if you speak up when you’re treated unfairly.”
She cautioned that the “measures must be rolled out in full, and without delay so that young women can feel the benefit. And crucially they must be properly promoted – so workers know what they’re entitled to – and enforced, so that there is accountability for employers in implementing the measures. If that doesn’t happen these rights risk remaining real on paper only”.
As the Bill approaches Royal Assent, the Work Foundation has urged ministers to resist amendments from the House of Lords that would water down the reforms. Among its recommendations are calls for the government to close loopholes, engage widely with stakeholders, ensure enforcement is well resourced and establish a national Secure Work Commission to measure the reforms’ long-term impact.
